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Landmark Links May 29th – Tailwind

One Big Thing While still early on in this recession, I think its already fair to say that ecommerce is a big winner coming mostly at the expense of brick and mortar retail – especially of the mom and pop variety.  As warehouse is largely a proxy for ecommerce, it stands to reason that it […]

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Landmark Links May 28th – Deep Thoughts

Seven Things I Think I Think There will be a work from home backlash in the not-too-distant future. There is no way that the federal government is getting out of the mortgage market. California’s economy is massive and diverse but it is also uniquely positioned to be hurt in this recession versus other states. Judging […]

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Landmark Links May 27th – Passing the Buck

One Big Thing One of the key features of large ride share and food delivery businesses is that they are able to outsource financial responsibility for their capital good (vehicles) to their drivers.  This is a great deal for the companies (almost all of which still can’t figure out how to make money though) and […]

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Landmark Links May 26th – Bottom of the Barrel

One Big Thing Since the shutdown began a couple of months ago, multi-family, single family and industrial/warehouse have fared relatively well.  Retail and particularly hospitality, not so much.  Today, I want to take a look at just how badly the hospitality market is frozen up, courtesy of Real Clear Analytics (emphasis added): In the month of […]

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Landmark Links May 22nd – Harder Than It Looks

One Big Thing As the economy begins to reopen, there is still going to be a substantial amount of distress in two real estate property segments in particular: retail and hospitality.  In the retail space, the pandemic has greatly accelerated a years-long decline due mostly to a combination of competition from ecommerce, over-supply and too […]

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Landmark Links May 21st – Inflexible

One Big Thing While balance sheet lenders like banks and insurance companies have wide latitude to extend forbearance to borrowers during the pandemic, CMBS and debt funds that use backleverage do not, thanks to a heavy reliance on OPM.  (h/t John Meek) IMO, this is a big part of the reason why distress is more […]

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Landmark Links May 20th – The Great Divide

One Big Thing The world’s largest real estate investors are sitting on an unprecedented pile of cash, preparing for distressed opportunities created by the pandemic.  However, the bid/ask spread between buyers and sellers is still massive. In an environment like this, buyers are likely to be patient as they will want to be able to […]

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Landmark Links May 19th – Opportunists Part II

One Big Thing With growing hostage demands from the likes of Starbucks, Staples and The Cheesecake Factory, it’s becoming clear that we have entered the looting portion of the economic crisis where everyone looks to take advantage of chaos to improve their own position, whether they experiencing actual distressed or not.  In addition to the […]

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Landmark Links May 18th – Opportunists

One Big Thing One potential problem in this sort of business environment is that, in the middle of all of the chaos, everyone is sort of on the honor system.  What do I mean by this? Let’s say that several tenants in a shopping center are struggling and go to the landlord for help and […]

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Landmark Links May 15th – Gotcha

One Big Thing Here’s an amazing capital markets fact: there has never been a default of a senior, triple-A rated tranche of debt issued by a CLO since the instrument was created.  However, we have also never seen an environment quite like this one and defaults on the loans behind CLOs are piling up at […]

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