Basis Points September 3rd – Stocking Up

What I’m Reading

Stocking Up: US retailers — burned by stock-outs in the second quarter as the retail inventories-to-sales ratio hit a 2020 low in June — are ramping up imports, sending a vast majority of their cargoes through Southern California to feed waves of e-commerce orders to avoid getting stung again by low inventories. This, in turn is putting more pressure on the already stretched warehouse capacity and is yet another reason to be bullish on the space.

Picking Up Steam: Proceedings for the eviction of retail tenants are picking up across the country as courts reopen and states’ moratoriums on evictions are expiring or getting curtailed as the economy reopens. Wall Street Journal  See Also: Small business failures loom as federal aid dries up.  New York Times

Not Getting By: Half of out-of-work Americans were unable to cover basic expenses with money from their unemployment benefits in August as the additional weekly unemployment benefit dropped to $300 from $600.  Morning Consult

Incentives: The share of rental listings on Zillow that advertise some form of concession rose from 16.2% in February to 30.4% in July. That includes discounts like free months of rent or parking, offering a gift card, or even waiving a deposit fee. Only 12.5% of rentals advertised concessions last July. Zillow

Up, Up and Away: Amazon moved one step closer to drone delivery after winning FAA approval for their Prime Air fleet. Business Insider

Bag Holders: Wealthy investors who poured money into the EB-5 program to invest in large development projects like Related’s Hudson Yards project in Manhattan are emerging as losers in the pandemic-driven commercial property fallout. Bloomberg Law

Chart of the Day

This is an interesting (and contrarian at the moment) chart.  If the historical relationship between transactions and price holds, we should see falling home values.  However, in the 10 years leading up to 2005, we had 17MM starts with high vacancy while the 10-years leading up to 2018 had only 9MM starts (with a substantially larger population) and low vacancy.  Also, the 35-45 age cohort is currently growing but was shrinking in 2005.  


Source: @SoberLook


Ballsy: A Thai tourist is under fire for grabbing a tiger’s testicles for a zoo selfie.  If memory serves me right, the last woman who grabbed a Tiger like that was a Perkins waitress.  NY Post

Doubling Down: A 19-year-old woman who was arrested after she pulled her pants down and urinated in front of a cop car made matters worse on her way to jail when she allegedly offered to perform a sex act on a patrolman in exchange for her Juul e-cigarette because Florida.  The Smoking Gun

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