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Landmark Links May 19th – Opportunists Part II

One Big Thing With growing hostage demands from the likes of Starbucks, Staples and The Cheesecake Factory, it’s becoming clear that we have entered the looting portion of the economic crisis where everyone looks to take advantage of chaos to improve their own position, whether they experiencing actual distressed or not.  In addition to the […]

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Landmark Links May 18th – Opportunists

One Big Thing One potential problem in this sort of business environment is that, in the middle of all of the chaos, everyone is sort of on the honor system.  What do I mean by this? Let’s say that several tenants in a shopping center are struggling and go to the landlord for help and […]

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Landmark Links May 15th – Gotcha

One Big Thing Here’s an amazing capital markets fact: there has never been a default of a senior, triple-A rated tranche of debt issued by a CLO since the instrument was created.  However, we have also never seen an environment quite like this one and defaults on the loans behind CLOs are piling up at […]

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Landmark Links May 14th – That Sinking Feeling

One Big Thing There is a popular narrative that has been around forever but has received even more attention since the pandemic began: that of the zero sum game between wealthy landlords and less well-off tenants.  The problem with this narrative is that it is largely untrue.  About half of the 43 million rental units […]

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Landmark Links May 13th – Shutdown

One Big Thing One of the most obvious spots for distressed real estate opportunities in the coming months is the hospitality sector, which is getting battered for a protracted period of time when occupancy rates have dropped to near zero.  The problem is that its a highly specialized market segment and not every real estate […]

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Landmark Links May 12th – Deep Thoughts

Seven Things I Think I Think Despite a slow start, the federal rescue package has been mostly effective so far.  However, unless employment ramps back up substantially a lot of the economic pain will be felt in August and beyond when enhanced unemployment burns off  With a general election in November, we are in for […]

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Landmark Links May 11th – Buying Time

One Big Thing Despite the fact that over 20MM people lost the jobs in April, early rent collection data for May looks surprisingly good, once again defying the doom and gloom predictions for Class B and C apartments.  Here is the key portion from NMHC’s release (emphasis mine): The National Multifamily Housing Council (NMHC)’s Rent […]

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Landmark Links May 8th – Conspicuous Consumption Part 3

One Big Thing Its been fairly well documented that consumers are stocking up on toilet paper and meat these days.  One other item that is flying off the “shelves”: $2,245 Peloton bikes.  The stock of the workout at home spin bike company is up over 100% since March and sales have grown 66% as people […]

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Landmark Links May 7th – The Playbook

One Big Thing No two real estate cycles are exactly alike but most do follow a broad road map.  Real estate isn’t the stock or bond market where assets are priced in real time.  Instead, it follows a well-worn pattern of distress that results in shock and triage, price discovery and eventually workouts before the […]

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Landmark Links May 6th – Reluctant

One Big Thing  The Federal Reserve has scrapped plans to use a $600 billion aid program for small and midsize businesses to promote the use of SOFR – its preferred replacement for LIBOR after several large banks balked at the proposal. LIBOR is supposed to be phasing out soon but no one seems the least […]

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