What I’m Reading
Shopping Spree: Retailers are hustling to find more warehouse space for goods before an expected crush of online orders this fall swamps already-strained logistics networks. This is being driven by the seasonal uptick in retail transactions that occurs annually over the holidays. However, conditions are becoming even tighter than normal as ecommerce continues to take share from brick and mortar retail and inventories build to correct for supply chain issues exposed by the pandemic.
Pancaked: A decline in U.S. Treasury yields over recent weeks has investors eyeing the approach of an unusual phenomenon – the entire U.S. yield curve sinking below 1%.
Runnin’ On Empty: Paycheck Protection Program money has now been spent at many restaurants, leaving them in the same precarious position they were in during outbreak’s early days with forced closures spiking, indoor dining largely banned and no end in sight. See Also: An NYC Hospitality Alliance poll of 471 restaurants, bars and nightclubs found that 83 percent of establishments were unable to make their full July rent and 37 percent unable to pay at all for the month of July.
Watch List: With government support programs expiring and future extensions still in limbo, the level of potentially distressed real estate assets far outweighs that of outright distress. However, that potential distress may be nearing a tipping point, especially in asset classes like retail and hospitality that have been hardest hit.
Diminishing Returns: Investment deals are thinning out across the country and companies are holding off on making major leasing decisions, forcing commercial real estate brokers to work harder than ever before to find new ways to stay afloat.
Bottoming Out? Black Knight’s Mortgage Monitor report found that national delinquency rate fell in June for the first time since January, as initial impacts of COVID-19 on mortgage performance began to crest, at least for the time being.
Chart of the Day
Ali Wolfe and Tim Sullivan of Meyers Research put this together. I would move home workouts further to the right but otherwise mostly agree with their conclusions.
Source: Meyers Research
Purrrfect Crime: A cat that broke out of prison is on the run after being apprehended with heroin and SIM cards it was smuggling to Sri Lankan inmates. I’m more of a dog person but this cat sounds like it would be a lot of fun to hang out with.
When You Have to Go: A British woman was making dinner when she caught an Amazon driver getting out of his truck to take a poop in her yard.
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