What I’m Reading
Stressed Out: The largest U.S. banks might lose as much as $47.6B on commercial real estate loans over the next two years in a worst-case scenario, according to the Federal Reserve’s latest stress test results.
Cold Comfort: The pandemic has only enhanced the attractiveness of the cold storage sector. See Also: Online could make up 6.4% of total grocery sales by 2021, compared to pre-COVID projections of 4.6% and up from 3.1% at the end of 2019 (h/t CJ Collins).
Different Angle: Simon Properties, the largest mall owner in the US, is making a run at JC Penney’s bankrupt parent company most likely as a way to get to the real estate that it owns as a redevelopment play.
Hitting Reverse: As coronavirus cases surge in states like Texas, Florida and California, some phased reopenings are stalling or even being reversed, leaving businesses and property owners uncertain about their future viability.
Falling Like a Rock: San Francisco apartment rental prices continue to plunge. The average rent for a one-bedroom apartment in San Francisco fell 11.8% year over year in June, following a 9% year-over-year drop in May according to apartment rental platform Zumper. The same survey indicated that rents in the US as a whole were up 1% YOY for June.
Chart of the Day
Lodging and retail still leading the way when it comes to loan defaults.
Covidiots of the Day: Students in Tuscaloosa, Alabama, who have been diagnosed with COVID-19 have been attending parties in the city and surrounding area as part of a contest to see who can catch the virus first. The contest involves a cash payout where the students put money in a pot and they try to get COVID. Whoever gets COVID first gets the pot. Perhaps most shockingly this does not appear to be part of an attempt to go viral (pun intended) on a social media platform. In related news, the Governor of Alabama has extended stay at home orders due to increased spread.
Desperate for Action: Bettors in New Jersey and Colorado were able to wager on the Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest this year.
Landmark Links – A candid look at the economy, real estate, and other things sometimes related.
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