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Landmark Links June 29th – Mixed Signals

What I’m Reading

Mixed Signals: Reviewing rent collection data has become a pandemic pastime for apartment investors, but these reports have varied significantly between outlets, tending to be higher for more institutional surveys like NMHC and lower for services that focus more on mom and pop operators like Apartment List.  In addition, some surveys don’t differentiate between full and partial payments.  For what its worth, my anecdotal evidence from both institutional and sub-institutional clients has been that collections have been better than expected.

Backsliding: Apple is re-closing stores that had recently opened again in areas where COVID-19 rates are spikingSee Also: Coronavirus cases are accelerating across the United States.

Concentration Risk: Smaller banks and credit unions tend to have a very high percentage of their earnings and balance sheets taken up by loans on commercial real estate assets.  As forbearance periods begin to expire and the economy still weak, they face an increased risk of defaults.

Bills Coming Due: During the pandemic, US households have actually managed to save  more money than usual thanks to government rescue payments.  However, if those programs go away before the economy is back near full strength, we are going to need those savings.

Conspicuous Consumption: Newly uncovered insights from the first-ever America at Home Study unveil a paradigm shift in how Americans view and value their homes, and proves ownership is more in demand than the industry anticipated.  This is a perfect illustration of the housing-as-consumption concept that I’ve been writing about since the early days of the pandemic.

Falling Behind: Regions where a large portion of the population can work from home are seeing a substantially slower increase in hiring recovery, thanks to lagging retail and personal services hiring.  See Also: High frequency data is showing that the economic recovery is ebbing in states with high outbreaks.

Filling a Need: Mall owners are beginning to evolve their operations to work with tech-enabled logistics companies to establish micro-distribution hubs in their retail centers.

Chart of the Day

Source: Bloomberg

WTF

Digital Hitch Hiking: A woman was arrested for repeatedly calling 911 saying that she needed a ride because Florida.

Covidiot of the Day: A man exposed himself at a gift shop after being asked to put on a mask because Florida.

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