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Landmark Links May 28th – Deep Thoughts

Seven Things I Think I Think

  1. There will be a work from home backlash in the not-too-distant future.
  2. There is no way that the federal government is getting out of the mortgage market.
  3. California’s economy is massive and diverse but it is also uniquely positioned to be hurt in this recession versus other states.
  4. Judging by the activity in the RV space, camp sites are going to be incredibly busy this summer, as will RV storage facilities for the foreseeable future.
  5. Childcare is going to be a bigger issue for families with two working parents than office re-opening.  If you can’t find someone to watch your kids, its impossible to get back to the office.
  6. The 2020 Time Magazine Person of the Year should just be Karen.
  7. In two weeks we’ll know that we need to wait another two weeks until we really know what’s going on with the economy.

What I’m Reading

Softening the Blow: De-densification in office spaces will likely provide some offset to the growing work-from-home wave.  Some contrarians like former Google CEO Eric Schmidt actually think that demand for office will be greater than before once the pandemic subsides.

Concentration Risk: Macy’s and JC Penney are the two largest mall tenants in the US, taking up over 12% of mall space combined.  With both planning hundreds of store closures, more pain is coming for mall landlords.

Ghost Towns: With campus classes, athletic events and graduations cancelled, college towns are reeling in a crisis that none could see coming.

Exception to the Rule: A carve-out for vacant properties in Opportunity Zone transactions lets investors avoid the “substantially improve” requirement, to save millions in development fees.  This is particularly important based on the rising number of retail vacancies that we are about to experience from the pandemic.

Cash Grab: Sale leaseback transactions are on the rise as business owners seek more cash in a very challenging operating environment.

Chart of the Day

The results of the work from home experiment have mostly exceeded expectations so far.

Work from home

WTF

Trashed: A naked man broke into a closed high school and caused $100k during a 22-hour vandalism spree because Florida.

Resourceful: A Ukrainian woman used her panties as a face mask after she was denied service at a post office.

Landmark Links – A candid look at the economy, real estate, and other things sometimes related.

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